The controversies surrounding the dramatic rise and fall of former Prime Minister Imran Khan are obscuring Pakistan’s preparations for crucial general elections on 8 February. Though barred from running himself, Khan’s enduring popularity and allegations of a “foreign conspiracy” to unseat him have left the nuclear-armed nation’s already fragile democracy on uncertain ground.
A Legend Sidelined
The high-stakes election is slated to be a showdown between established political dynasties, Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), and the opposition Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led by Asif Ali Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari. Yet it will take place in the long shadow of Khan’s tenure as premier.
The Oxford-educated cricket star turned populist politician swept into power in 2018 after running a fiery outsider campaign rooted in anti-corruption and religious conservatism. His first speech as PM pledged justice, meritocracy, and a “Naya Pakistan” (new Pakistan) that would lift millions out of poverty.
Yet his opponents soon accused him of economic mismanagement, crackdowns on opposition voices, and press freedom—all while overpromising and underdelivering. And despite warm ties initially, the powerful military establishment that enabled his ascent had, by 2022, grown uneasy with his consolidation of control and outspokenness. After a string of defections suddenly gutted Khan’s coalition, things reached a boiling point in April 2022 when he became the first Pakistani prime minister ever removed by a parliamentary no-confidence vote.
Since then, Khan has adopted a combative stance, supporting street protests and alleging that he was the victim of a “conspiracy” to overthrow the government that the United States had orchestrated with the aid of his domestic rivals. Though banned from holding office, he commands a devoted grassroots following, especially among youth and in the vital Punjab province that the PTI still controls. Relying on his enduring celebrity and allegations of victimisation, Khan’s party has managed to paralyse the National Assembly when in session and take protests to the streets despite his mounting legal troubles mounting.
The Heavy Hand of the Military
Yet analysts counter that true power still lies behind the scenes with Pakistan’s military establishment, which has ruled the country for over half its turbulent history. Despite accusations of recent strains with Khan and his loyalists, Army Chief Asim Muni remains the ultimate arbiter and kingmaker in the shadows. This was reflected in his hosting of a special National Security Committee conference last month, which laid down strict parameters.
Nawaz Sharif, whose last stint saw both economic growth and corruption allegations, has long sparred with the generals yet has now seemingly made his peace as their compromise choice for premier. Meanwhile, Bhutto dynasty scion Bilawal offers another recognisable, though tainted, dynastic figure deemed to offer establishment-friendly stability. But Khan’s allies, including foreign observers, note that the current conditions seem heavily stacked against them, with the ex-PM and his party leaders knocked out of open political contention by questionable legal cases, PTI gatherings banned, media censorship by intel agencies, and electoral boundaries allegedly redrawn by an opposition-friendly Election Commission to boost their chances.
A Tinderbox of Volatility
Pakistan can scarcely handle more internal unrest. Its economy remains on the ropes from devastating climate change-fueled floods this past summer and balance of payments troubles. Meanwhile, terrorist attacks have ticked up after the return of the Taliban to power next door in Afghanistan. Khan has hinted that his passionate supporters will take to the streets nationwide if polls seem overtly rigged or his party faces a suspiciously poor showing.
The United States is watching closely as events unfold, eager for a friendly government, though largely hamstrung from strongly criticising the military’s political interference by its security priorities. Ironically, though, patently skewed elections could undermine the legitimacy of the next leadership that Washington needs as a partner, also risking greater unrest. That benefits neither Pakistani stability nor Western counterterrorism interests at this delicate juncture.
All eyes are locked on whether the impoverished nation of 220 million people can pull off free, fair, and credible national elections. But in the dark and deepening shadow of Imran Khan’s populist movement and allegations of a “foreign conspiracy” that triggered his dramatic ouster from power, basic questions swirl around the fragile future of civilian democracy itself in Pakistan as it reaches this latest crossroads. If Khan’s bloc continues to raise accusations of pre-poll rigging and manipulation, the unrest engulfing a significant nuclear-armed but frequently diplomatically isolated U.S. ally may have only just begun to crescendo rather than to climax.